In a remarkable financial turnaround, Japan’s leading shipping companies – NYK Line, Mitsui O.S.K. Lines, and Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha – are poised to keep the coveted 10% Return on Equity (ROE) mark in their fiscal year ending March 31, 2024. This anticipated surge is attributed to strategic bypassing of the Red Sea and a favorable yen depreciation.
Historically, these giants reported ROEs between 15%-68% in the fiscal year ending March 2021, well above the Tokyo Stock Exchange Prime Market’s benchmark of 10%. This success stems from a swift increase in net income outpacing shareholder equity growth.
The pivot point was Ocean Network Express (ONE), jointly owned by the trio, which capitalised on robust demand from the U.S. and other countries since late 2020. ONE’s post-tax profits for the fiscal year ending March 2022 skyrocketed to approximately ¥2.18 trillion, a fivefold increase from the previous year. The dividends reaped from ONE alone exceeded ¥1 trillion, contributing significantly to the parent companies’ earnings.
However, the relationship between equity and net income is in flux. By September 2023, these companies reached record equity highs, with NYK Line at ¥2.6471 trillion, MOL at ¥2.1603 trillion, and Kawasaki Kisen at ¥1.5837 trillion. Both NYK and Kawasaki Kisen have been actively repurchasing shares, a move that temporarily sustains equity but may lead to its eventual reduction.
Amidst these developments, the maritime industry faces new challenges. Since November, Houthi militant attacks in the Red Sea have forced major global shipping lines, including AP Moller-Maersk, ONE, CMA-CGM, and Hapag-Lloyd, to reroute, avoiding the Red Sea. This diversion, also adopted by carriers of cars, tankers, and bulk goods, primarily involves longer routes around the Cape of Good Hope. With the Panama Canal also facing drought-induced restrictions, the industry grapples with significant logistical constraints.
Despite market uncertainties, these Japanese shipping behemoths, with robust equity and an uptick in net income, are on track to not only surpass the 10% ROE threshold but also potentially elevate their Price-Book-Value Ratio (PBR) to 1x, aligning with their liquidation value. This financial trajectory indicates a robust recovery and a strategic triumph in an industry rife with volatility and challenges.