〆The yen’s depreciation, with the exchange rate at 150 yen to the dollar, is expected to boost operating profits. Additionally, the return on equity (ROE) for each company is also anticipated to exceed 10%.
There is a possibility that the consolidated performance of the three major shipping companies, Nippon Yusen Kaisha (NYK), Mitsui O.S.K. Lines (MOL), and Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha (K Line), for the fiscal year ending March 2024 may exceed initial expectations. The depreciation of the yen, which was around 149 yen to the dollar during the January to March 2024 period, is expected to boost the earnings of the three companies when calculated in dollars. Depending on the extent of the performance improvement, there is a possibility that the return on equity (ROE) for all three companies could exceed 10%.（Text and creating Image picture by Hirofumi Yamamoto）
Both the tramp shipping and container shipping businesses of the major shipping companies have been performing more robustly than initially anticipated due to diversions from the Suez Canal and vessel congestion at the Panama Canal.
In the car carrier business of the major shipping companies, delays have occurred due to diversions in the Red Sea. However, executives from the major shipping companies have stated the following: “There is a possibility that the fiscal year ending March 2024 performance of the major shipping companies may exceed the performance forecast as of the third quarter.”
For the fiscal year ending March 2024, the consolidated ordinary profit forecasts for the major shipping companies are as follows: Nippon Yusen Kaisha (NYK) at 245 billion yen (approximately $1.6 billion), Mitsui O.S.K. Lines (MOL) at 225 billion yen (approximately $1.5 billion), and Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha (K Line) at 135 billion yen (approximately $900 million). These figures are calculated using an exchange rate of 1 dollar = 150 yen.
For the January to March 2024 period, the assumed exchange rates for the major shipping companies were as follows: NYK at 1 dollar = 142 yen, MOL at 1 dollar = 140.98 yen, and K Line at 1 dollar = 143.94 yen. However, the actual average exchange rate for the January to March 2024 period was around 1 dollar = 149 yen.
The sensitivity of ordinary profit to exchange rate fluctuations is as follows: for Nippon Yusen Kaisha (NYK), a one yen depreciation in the yen’s value against the dollar increases ordinary profit by 350 million yen. Similarly, Mitsui O.S.K. Lines (MOL) sees an increase of 500 million yen, and Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha (K Line) sees an increase of 400 million yen for every one yen depreciation in the yen’s value. Therefore, the combined effect of a one yen depreciation in the yen’s value for the three companies amounts to slightly over 8 billion yen in increased ordinary profit for the January to March period, based on simple calculations.
The better-than-expected performance of the fiscal year ending March 2024 for the major shipping companies is also attributed to the stronger-than-anticipated conditions in the shipping market.
In typical years, the January to March period experiences a significant softening in the tramp shipping market due to reduced demand associated with the Chinese New Year (Spring Festival) and sluggish iron ore exports from Brazil during the rainy season.
For the fiscal year ending March 2024 performance outlook, the major shipping companies have factored in market assumptions related to the tightening of vessel supply and demand due to the impact of droughts at the Panama Canal and diversions in the Red Sea.
The three major shipping companies had anticipated charter rates for dry bulk carriers to be in the range of $10,000 to $14,000 per day. However, actual rates for Cape-sized vessels briefly surpassed $20,000 per day during the same period. Rates for medium-sized bulk carriers have also been maintained around the $12,000 per day level.
For container ships as well, vessel demand continues to be tighter than anticipated by the three companies.
The increase in ordinary profit is directly linked to an increase in net profit. Based on the financial statements for the period of April to December 2023, the equity of major shipping companies stands at approximately ¥2・5 trillion (about $17billion) for Nippon Yusen Kaisha (NYK), approximately ¥2・27 trillion (about $15billion) for Mitsui O.S.K. Lines (MOL), and approximately ¥1・5 trillion (about $10billion) for Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha (K Line).
The major shipping companies aim to secure a return on equity (ROE), a financial metric calculated by dividing net profit by equity, of over 10%. If the performance for March 2024 significantly exceeds expectations, it is anticipated that the major shipping companies will surpass the 10% ROE target.
〆日本郵船、商船三井、川崎汽船の２０２４年３月期決算が予想を上回る可能性がある。〆１ドル＝１５０円の円安効果が経常利益を押し上げる。各社のROEも10%を超える。
日本郵船、商船三井、川崎汽船の海運大手3社の2024年3月期連結業績が当初の予想を上回る可能性がある。2024年1―3月期に1ドル=149円前後で推移した円安がドルベースでの３社の収益を押し上げる。業績の上振れ次第で３社のROE（自己資本利益率）が10%を超える可能性がある。
海運大手の不定期船事業、コンテナ船事業ともにスエズ運河からの迂回（うかい）、パナマ運河の滞船で収益は当初想定よりも堅調に推移している。
海運大手の自動車船事業は紅海の迂回による日程ロスが発生している。しかし、海運大手の幹部は次のように話す。「海運大手の２０２４年３月期業績は第3四半期時点の業績予想を上回る可能性がある」。