■NYK Line Revises Up Recurring Profit Forecast to 410 Billion Yen (USD 2.7 Billion) for the Current Fiscal Year
NYK Line announced on July 22, 2024, an upward revision of its consolidated earnings forecast for the fiscal year ending March 2025. The recurring profit forecast has been revised from the previous estimate of 250 billion yen (USD 1.6 billion, based on an exchange rate of 155 yen to the dollar) announced in May to 410 billion yen (USD 2.7 billion). The primary reasons for this upward revision are the increase in container ship market rates, steady demand for dry bulk transportation, and the depreciation of the yen, which has bolstered profits.
NYK Line, along with other major Japanese shipping companies Mitsui O.S.K. Lines and Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha, has a stake in the Singapore-based container shipping company Ocean Network Express (ONE), with NYK holding 38%, Mitsui O.S.K. Lines 31%, and Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha 31%. Given that NYK cited increased profit from its equity stake in ONE and the impact of the weaker yen as reasons for the upward revision, it is highly likely that Mitsui O.S.K. Lines and Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha will also announce upward revisions to their earnings forecasts in the near future.
The company has also revised its forecasts upwards, the other sectors of recurring profit. The updated projections include a revenue of 2.57 trillion yen ($166 billion), previously forecasted at 2.29 trillion yen, an operating profit of 215 billion yen ($14 billion), previously 165 billion yen, and a net profit of 390 billion yen ($25 billion), previously 245 billion yen. The assumptions for these forecasts are an exchange rate of 151.26 yen to the dollar and a fuel oil price of $606.15 per ton.
In addition to the favorable container shipping market and the depreciation of the yen, the company’s forecast now includes the performance of its air transport business. This follows the change in the timing of the share exchange between its consolidated subsidiary, Nippon Cargo Airlines (NCA), and ANA Holdings from July 1 this year to March 31 next year. The stable market trends in the logistics and tramp charter businesses also contribute to this upward revision.
The container shipping business has seen freight rates rise due to the increased use of the Cape of Good Hope route, resulting in a tightening supply-demand balance, driven by the situation in the Red Sea. The company expects improved earnings from its equity-method affiliate, Ocean Network Express (ONE), which operates this business.
Nippon Yusen Kaisha (NYK) maintains a dividend payout ratio of 30% (the ratio of dividends paid to net profit). With the rise in net profit, the conventional 30% calculation results in a payout ratio of only 19%. Consequently, there is speculation that there is room for an increase in dividend.
■Imabari Shipbuilding has experienced strong performance due to the depreciation of the yen. However, challenges remain, including a persistent labor shortage and rising material costs.
Imabari Shipbuilding, Japan’s largest shipbuilding company, reported a group-wide revenue of 443.1 billion yen ($2.9 billion, at an exchange rate of 155 yen per dollar) for the last fiscal year. This represents an increase of over 66 billion yen from the previous year, marking the second consecutive year of revenue growth. The increase in revenue and profit was driven by the weakening yen and rising global demand for shipbuilding.
While specific profit figures were not disclosed, the company confirmed that it achieved profit growth.
The primary factors for the revenue increase include the use of the dollar in shipbuilding contracts, which benefited from the yen’s depreciation, and the global surge in demand for new ships as many existing vessels reached replacement age.
The joint venture established three years ago with Japan’s second-largest shipbuilding company has seen a rise in orders, contributing to revenue growth. Last year, six of the world’s largest container ships by cargo capacity were completed.
Looking ahead, the company expects to maintain sales if the yen remains weak and demand stays strong. However, rising costs for materials and labor are squeezing profits.
President Yukito Higaki said at a press conference, “We aim to promote collaboration among Japanese companies in developing ships that use hydrogen or ammonia as fuel, which do not emit carbon dioxide. We want to create an environment where new technologies can be shared collectively across Japan.”
Higaki also highlighted future challenges: “We are in a situation where we cannot increase production despite demand due to a chronic labor shortage. While digitalization and mechanization are necessary to improve productivity, I believe the effects of these measures will take time to materialize
〆日本郵船、今治造船、日本の海運、造船のトップ企業の業績が好調である
■日本郵船は今期経常4100億円（２７億㌦）に上方修正した。主な理由はコンテナ船市況の上昇、虚空貨物輸送の堅調、円安の押し上げである。
日本郵船は２０２４年７月22日、2025年3月期通期連結業績予想の上方修正を発表した。経常利益（Recurring Profit）は5月に発表した前回予想の2500億円（16億㌦、１ドル＝１５５円換算）から4100億円（２７億㌦）に見直した。コンテナ船の運賃市況が期初の想定を上回っているほか、為替の円安推移も利益を押し上げる。海運大手３社はシンガポールのコンテナ船会社Ocean Network Express (ONE)に対し、日本郵船：38%、商船三井：31%、川崎汽船：31%がそれぞれ出資している。日本郵船がONEからの持ち分法適用利益や円安を上方修正の理由の一つとしたため、今後、商船三井、川崎汽船も上方修正を発表する可能性は高い。
経常利益（recurring profit）以外は、売上高2兆5700億円（１６６億㌦、前回予想は2兆2900億円）、営業利益2150億円（14億㌦、同1650億円）、純利益3900億円（25億㌦、同2450億円）にいずれも上方修正した。前提条件は為替が1ドル=151・26円、燃料油価格がトン当たり606・15ドル。
コンテナ船市況上振れと円安のほか、連結子会社の日本貨物航空（NCA）とANAホールディングスとの株式交換の実行時期が今年7月1日から来年3月31日に変更になったことに伴い、航空運送事業の業績予想も追加した。物流事業や不定期専用船事業の堅調な市況推移も寄与する。
コンテナ船事業は、紅海情勢に起因する喜望峰ルートの利用による船腹需給逼迫（ひっぱく）により運賃市況が上昇。同事業を運営する持ち分法適用会社オーシャンネットワークエクスプレス（ONE）の収支良化を見込む。
日本郵船は配当性向（純利益に占める株主配当額の割合）を３０％としている。今回、純利益が上昇したため、従来の３０％換算では配当性向は１９％にとどまる。このため、配当についても増配の余地があるとの見方が出ている。
■今治造船は円安で業績好調となった。しかし、引き続き人で不足、資材高騰という課題を残す。
国内造船最大手「今治造船」の昨年度のグループ全体の決算は、売上高は４４３１億円（２９億㌦、１ドル＝１５５円換算、以下同じ）と前期から６６０億円余り増え２年連続の増収となりました。円安や世界的な造船需要の高まりなどで増収増益となりました。
利益については具体的な数字を公表していないが、増益を確保したと説明した。
船舶の建造を受注する際にはドルが使われることから円安が進んだことや、世界的に代替期を迎えた船舶が大量にあり需要が高まっていることが主な要因だ。
３年前に国内第２位の造船会社と共同で設立した会社の受注が伸びていて、世界最大級の積載量のコンテナ船あわせて６隻の建造が去年、完成したことも増収につながりました。
今後については需要が堅調な中で円安が続けば売り上げは維持できるとする一方で、資機材や人件費の高騰が収益を圧迫しているとしています。
檜垣幸人（Yukito Higaki）社長は会見で次のように述べた。「二酸化炭素を排出しない水素やアンモニアが燃料の船などの開発で日本企業同士の連携を進めていきたい。オールジャパンで新規の技術を皆で共有できる環境をつくりたい」
檜垣氏は今後の課題については次のように指摘した。
「慢性的な人材不足で需要があるのに増産できない状況が続いている。生産性をあげるためデジタル化や機械化が必要だが効果が現れるのはまだ先かなと思っている」